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Verão 2019: Brasil deve se preparar para estação mais quente e chuvosa com impacto de El Niño

Exatamente às 20h22, horário de Brasília, desta sexta (21), terá início o verão 2018/2019 no Hemisfério Sul, que promete ser mais quente e chuvoso do que o anterior.

De acordo com prognósticos do Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (CPTEC-Inpe) e do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, do Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (Inmet-Mapa), a temperatura média em todo o Brasil no trimestre dezembro, janeiro, fevereiro deverá superar os 31.5ºC registrados no mesmo período de 2017/2018.

A explicação para isso, segundo a climatologista Alice Macedo, do Grupo de Previsão Climática do CPTEC, está na ocorrência do fenômeno El Niño, que também vai causar alterações no regime pluviométrico em boa parte do país.

“Embora desta vez ele esteja classificado como de intensidade de fraca a moderada, é característico dele que eleve a temperatura do Brasil”, explica. “O El Niño também está envolvido no aumento de chuvas em algumas regiões e diminuição em outras.”

O El Niño – Oscilação Sul (ENOS), seu nome completo, é um fenômeno natural, que ocorre a intervalos irregulares, que podem variar de 2 a 7 anos, com duração de seis a 18 meses. Ele é causado pelo aquecimento acima do normal das águas do Oceano Pacífico à altura da linha do Equador, entre as costas oeste da América do Sul e leste da Oceania.

O resultado disso é sentido em todo o mundo, com secas mais intensas em algumas partes, como, por exemplo, Austrália, Filipinas, Equador e regiões Norte e Nordeste do Brasil, e chuvas torrenciais e inundações em outros, como no sul país e no México e Estados Unidos.

Além disso, os verões e primaveras podem ser mais quentes em regiões como o Sudeste brasileiro e os invernos mais intensos em outras, como a Europa, os furacões mais moderados no Atlântico e os ciclones mais fortes no Pacífico. O último El Niño ocorreu entre o final de 2015 e início de 2016 e foi um dos mais intensos já registrado, desde que o fenômeno começou a ser monitorado em 1950.

Sinais do El Niño

Placa com inscrição 'El Niño' sob gotas de chuva

Hoje (19/12), o Inmet divulgou seu Prognóstico Climático de Verão, com as previsões para a estação que começa na sexta-feira. Segundo o Instituto, o aumento da temperatura da superfície do mar no oceano Pacífico Equatorial começou no final de junho, exceto na região mais próxima da América do Sul. Ou seja, a porção mais central daquele oceano esteve mais quente nos últimos meses.

Durante as primeiras semanas de novembro, no entanto, houve uma expansão de águas com temperaturas mais altas em toda faixa equatorial do Pacífico, o que indica o surgimento do El Niño.

Ainda de acordo com a nota técnica do Inmet, a maioria dos modelos dinâmicos e estatísticos, gerados pelos principais centros internacionais de meteorologia, indicam uma probabilidade superior a 96% de ocorrência de um novo El Niño. Isso significa que é praticamente certo que o verão que se inicia vai ser influenciado pelo fenômeno.

Além do El Niño, outros fatores também podem ter impacto no regime de chuvas no país, segundo o Inmet. Entre eles estão a temperatura na superfície do oceano Atlântico Sudoeste, na costa da Argentina e Uruguai – que está acima da média – e o Atlântico Subtropical, próximo ao litoral do Nordeste.

O Oceano Atlântico Norte, por sua vez, estará passando de uma fase quente para uma fria, fenômeno chamado de Oscilação Multidecadal do Atlântico (OMA), o que poderá aumentar as precipitações no norte do Nordeste nos próximos meses e anos.

Particularidades regionais

As previsões do Inmet apontam também que as temperaturas ficarão acima das médias do verão anterior em todas as cinco regiões do país, com algumas diferenças entre estados.

No Nordeste, por exemplo, serão mais altas no Maranhão, centro e sul do Piauí, sul do Ceará e no oeste de Pernambuco. Já no Centro-Oeste fará mais calor no Mato Grosso do Sul, norte do Mato Grosso e sul de Goiás. No Sudeste, as temperaturas deverão variar de normal a acima do normal em toda a região.

No caso da Região Sul, elas devem ficar um pouco acima da média em praticamente toda a região, com exceção apenas do sul do Rio Grande do Sul, onde podem ficar dentro da normalidade.

Quanto às chuvas, as previsões do Inmet indicam que a variação será maior que as temperaturas entre as regiões. Uma das mais acentuadas ocorrerá na Região Norte, onde haverá áreas com precipitações dentro, acima ou abaixo do normal. Elas devem ser superiores à média em Tocantins, grande parte do Amapá e de Roraima, além do oeste e sul do Pará e sul do Acre e Rondônia. No Amazonas, deve chover um pouco menos do que de costume, com exceção apenas do leste do estado.

As previsões para o Nordeste indicam que haverá predomínio de áreas com maior probabilidade de chuvas acima da média na Bahia, litoral de Alagoas até o Rio Grande do Norte e no sul do Piauí e do Maranhão. Nas demais, as chuvas ficarão próximas ao normal ou ligeiramente abaixo. No Centro-Oeste, por sua vez, as precipitações deverão ficar dentro do de costume ou ligeiramente acima em toda a região, exceto no sul do Mato Grosso do Sul, onde elas serão mais próximas à média ou um pouco menos

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESTermômetro fincado em areia de praia marca temperatura alta
Image captionPara cientistas, é precipitado relacionar a previsão de verão mais quente e chuvoso com efeitos das mudanças climáticas

No caso da região Sudeste, a previsão para os próximos três meses é de chuvas variando de normal a ligeiramente acima em grande parte de Minas Gerais, no centro-norte do Espírito Santo e no centro de São Paulo. No Rio de Janeiro elas deverão ficar abaixo da média. Tempestades, normais durante o verão na região, não estão descartadas. Na Região Sul, deverá chover mais do que de costume no sul, centro e oeste do Rio Grande do Sul, leste de Santa Catarina e no norte do Paraná. Nas demais áreas, as chuvas ficarão na média ou um pouco abaixo.

Para os meteorologistas não se pode ligar essas previsões de um verão mais quente e chuvoso com as mudanças climáticas e o aquecimento global. “É muito complicado associarmos um verão isolado com esses fenômenos”, diz Priscila Pereira Coltri, diretora associada do Centro de Pesquisas Meteorológicas e Climáticas Aplicadas à Agricultura (Cepagri), da Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp).

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